Political Betting Archive for the 'Coalition' Category
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We all know each state is a separate battleground with couple of exceptions each allocates their electoral College votes allocated on a first past the post basis.
Trump has gone the other way. His unfavourable ratings have remained pretty constant. I regard leader ratings as far more indicative of what might happen than voting polls and these latest numbers from a top pollster should be seen as positive for the former VP.
Patrick Heneghan, who was executive director for elections and campaigns, said that he was asked to withdraw top-up spending earmarked for deputy Tom Watson, Yvette Cooper, Rachel Reeves and a string of other MPs seen as critical of his leadership.
Many of the constituencies held by both factions had large numbers of Brexit-backing Labour voters who distrusted Corbyn.
He further confirms that and other officials used a secret unit to keep cash and campaigns material going into the seats that internal polling suggested were at risk.
Heneghan defended the move because it was legally authorised by general secretary Iain McNicol, and said that other seats helped by the secret unit — Ashfield, Newcastle-Under-Lyme, Barrow, Bishop Auckland and Dudley North — narrowly avoided falling to the Tories.
Corbyn supporters insist that the creation of a secret campaign unit without the knowledge of the leader is clear proof of disloyalty by senior staff.
They also argue that Labour could have won the election if it had put more effort into taking Tory seats than defending its own.
Heneghan is one of several former officials who are suing the party for libel and data breaches over the leaked anti-Semitism report, claiming that it selectively quoted private WhatsApp groups out of context and sought to blame them for the failure to get Corbyn into No.
Heneghan suggested that he had feedback from the Lib Dems that they and Labour could agree not to stand against each other in 50 seats, a move aimed at depriving Boris Johnson of a majority.
How Covid-Alert are you? Or, put another way, without checking, can you tell me what the current Covid Alert Level is? And without checking, can you tell me what that alert level means?
I expect that most of you will have proven unalert by that measure. It was supposed to be a touchstone measure.
Let me remind you of his words:. And that Covid Alert Level will be determined primarily by R and the number of coronavirus cases.
And in turn that Covid Alert Level will tell us how tough we have to be in our social distancing measures — the lower the level the fewer the measures.
Bearing this in mind, you would have thought that the government would be referring daily to the Covid Alert Level as a reference point for determining how tough it has to be in determining social distancing measures.
So far as I can tell, the last time it was mentioned in any government release of any kind was on 19 June. The Education Secretary, who has adopted the protonym Beleaguered, has not used it to justify his decisions on reopening schools.
It was not used to justify the decision to reopen pubs, nail bars or gyms. So as a matter of fact, the Covid Alert Level is not being used to tell government how tough it has to be in social distancing measures.
Indeed, even checking the current Covid Alert Level is not particularly straightforward. It has quietly fallen into desuetude. There are three possibilities what has happened, and all of them would be damning of the government.
First, the criteria for the alert level system may have been badly drawn up. When applied to the practicalities of managing social distancing in a complex economy, it came up short.
If so, the machinery of government, and those presiding over its administration, failed on a central policy initiative through incompetence.
Or secondly, the government may have proven incapable of managing a coherent communications strategy on by far its greatest challenge of the moment.
This is not an aberration for this government, but the norm. At every stage, it has dithered, backtracked and waffled about whether and where we should wear facemasks.
Does any of this matter? As political betting becomes more mainstream going forward, you should expect these odds to have far more influence on how candidate polling is established.
While it is most common for gamblers to bet on political races, there are also tons of other kinds of political betting odds to choose from. During major election cycles, you can wager on all the following — and more!
This is because there is far more bettor familiarity with US Presidency, House, and Senate races than there is with local elections and the tens of thousands of politicians that populate them.
In the future, when local domestic sportsbooks are widespread in the US and political betting is allowed at such venues, you will likely see state congress, mayoral, and city council races represented, at least in larger cities.
Remember, if you live in the US, you can only wager on elections and politics via overseas sportsbook operators. When you search for Trump election odds, you will come across two different metrics to consider: betting odds and polling numbers.
Instead, these odds simply reflect what the betting public thinks will happen. Smart campaigns are now using political betting markets to plan their campaign and advertising strategies.
There is much to be gained from studying history, and bettors would do well to heed recent elections and their implied historical trends when wagering on political races.
Meanwhile, the GOP odds were informative in their own right, as new factors emerged that allowed a popular outsider candidate to win the most powerful political seat in the world.
Thus, the rules for might be different than ever before, though lessons from these recent campaigns are a good watermark for what to expect in the current cycle.
In the US, the Presidency almost always attracts betting odds. For example, from the moment Donald Trump was elected President in , most online sportsbooks offered futures odds for his chances of re-election in While these are less popular markets for US gamblers, you can often wager on Canadian election odds and participate in European politics betting.
UK betting odds, Australian politics betting, and even more obscure markets like India political betting are commonly available at most top sites during certain popular election cycles, too.
Live betting is geared toward mobile sports betting and would be difficult for most books to implement for politics.
To date, no reputable sportsbook has attempted to do so. In the future, live betting during elections should become a desirable feature for US bettors.
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Current Election Betting Odds The candidates have come and gone seemingly en masse, with the field ballooning to nearly 30 DNC hopefuls before shrinking down to where it is now.
Political Prop Bets Expand. Over 2. Presidential Election Betting If you want to bet on POTUS election odds, you have a number of sites to choose from, the best of which are listed on this page.
Congressional Election Betting All the top sites also offer Congressional betting odds, though you are unlikely to find comprehensive coverage of all races, as there are simply too many of them to include the full menu.
US House Of Representatives Odds You can expect to find House odds for races during a given general election cycle or midterm election, even though there are usually hundreds of races taking place.
US Senate Odds There are far fewer Senate races than House races during most election cycles, as the upper chamber is smaller than the lower.
Gubernatorial Governor Betting Betting on governorships in the US is commonplace, though as with Congressional election odds, there are typically only a few races close enough to merit inclusion on the boards.
However, there are other factors you need to consider if you want to make the best bets possible, and these are a few pointers to help you pick a winner: Know the House majority — Often, the executive branch of government will diverge from the House majority.
A Presidential administration rarely controls both chambers of Congress, and the House flips between Democratic and Republican majorities more often than the Senate.
If a President is elected and loses the House, this can indicate a tougher path to re-election. Historically, a party majority in the Senate bodes well for a Presidential incumbent of the same party, but this is not always the rule.
Understand the electoral college — America is a democratic republic, not a pure democracy. The popular vote does not determine who wins the Presidential election — only the electoral college does.
That said, the popular vote does determine who wins other federal and in-state elections. Weigh the incumbent — Incumbents almost always win their races.
In the last years, only five Presidents have lost their re-election bids.